Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 3.950997 4.625454 5.371432 6.256478 7.276619 8.414314 9.778005
2025-10-12 2.943931 3.860462 4.983461 6.454838 8.325499 10.617515 13.631198
2025-10-19 2.319024 3.343450 4.709879 6.651980 9.325062 12.856162 17.851860
2025-10-26 1.849576 2.894599 4.393997 6.677906 10.038753 14.765822 21.870990
2025-11-02 1.459421 2.459231 3.990618 6.471219 10.342688 16.094355 25.205180
2025-11-09 1.148067 2.071385 3.573136 6.146102 10.381261 16.990289 27.960878
2025-11-16 0.950704 1.825484 3.327871 6.035246 10.708731 18.327029 31.506300
2025-11-23 0.804076 1.636300 3.139685 5.978080 11.096084 19.777332 35.368521
2025-11-30 0.729793 1.564644 3.142431 6.247198 12.065267 22.284639 41.249146
2025-12-07 0.637554 1.439247 3.023250 6.269226 12.584377 24.058661 46.035641
2025-12-14 0.555381 1.317982 2.890759 6.241581 12.998287 25.675823 50.694317
2025-12-21 0.489377 1.218309 2.784431 6.246633 13.468042 27.433272 55.775834
2025-12-28 0.475946 1.236860 2.932550 6.806356 15.131761 31.666634 66.060200
2026-01-04 0.435493 1.184726 2.920426 7.025690 16.130761 34.725999 74.412106
2026-01-11 0.399269 1.135751 2.907415 7.240769 17.147472 37.928632 83.382542
2026-01-18 0.356009 1.059791 2.818759 7.269419 17.759190 40.361266 91.025140
2026-01-25 0.305067 0.952253 2.635297 7.045820 17.772372 41.528782 96.131702
2026-02-01 0.255647 0.837689 2.413832 6.693775 17.437848 41.900031 99.555573
2026-02-08 0.223625 0.766479 2.292432 6.573715 17.637139 43.468817 105.757196
2026-02-15 0.198162 0.709407 2.199126 6.511795 17.969053 45.369090 112.885194
2026-02-22 0.188179 0.699365 2.235541 6.803309 19.227371 49.549453 125.646340
2026-03-01 0.170337 0.659276 2.178335 6.827168 19.795007 52.139233 134.911318
2026-03-08 0.152938 0.616608 2.106049 6.797227 20.216054 54.414011 143.636807